TransINVEST Vilnius vs Panevėžys Prediction & Preview
A Lyga (Lithuania) · Aug 10, 2026 · kickoff 15:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A LYGA (LITHUANIA)
TransINVEST Vilnius vs Panevėžys
Model pick: Panevėžys (43%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.99 – 1.33
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| TransINVEST Vilnius | Panevėžys |
|---|
| League position | #1 (35 pts) | #8 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 2.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 40% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
*TransINVEST Vilnius shown at home, Panevėžys shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
TransINVEST Vilnius — last 5
DLLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Panevėžys — last 5
DLDLD
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | TransINVEST Vilnius (home) | Panevėžys (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-3 in 10 (1.1 / 1.1 goals per game) | 2-0-8 in 10 (0.7 / 2.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% |
A Lyga (Lithuania) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.64
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 47%
Use these A Lyga (Lithuania) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.99 vs 1.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — TransINVEST Vilnius or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Panevėžys or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| TransINVEST Vilnius clean sheet | 26% |
| Panevėžys clean sheet | 37% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Panevėžys is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Despite playing away, Panevėžys edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ TransINVEST Vilnius vs Panevėžys — FAQ
Who will win TransINVEST Vilnius vs Panevėžys?
Our statistical model makes Panevėžys the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: TransINVEST Vilnius 29%, draw 29%, Panevėžys 43%.
Will both teams score in TransINVEST Vilnius vs Panevėžys?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in TransINVEST Vilnius vs Panevėžys?
Expected goals are 0.99 for TransINVEST Vilnius and 1.33 for Panevėžys — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in TransINVEST Vilnius vs Panevėžys?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (13%). Double chance for TransINVEST Vilnius or draw is 56%.