Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerphilly Prediction & Preview
Feeder Leagues (Wales) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
FEEDER LEAGUES (WALES)
Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerphilly
Model pick: Trethomas Bluebirds (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.84 – 0.52
Total goals: 1.4
Over 2.5: 29%
Both teams score: 38%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Trethomas Bluebirds | Caerphilly |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.8 | 0.5 / 1.75 |
*Trethomas Bluebirds shown at home, Caerphilly shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Trethomas Bluebirds — last 5
DDLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Caerphilly — last 5
LDLW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Trethomas Bluebirds (home) | Caerphilly (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 100% |
Feeder Leagues (Wales) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.53
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 16%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 74%
BTTS: 62%
Use these Feeder Leagues (Wales) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.84 vs 0.52):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (26%) |
| Double chance — Trethomas Bluebirds or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Caerphilly or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 62% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 5% / 95% |
| Trethomas Bluebirds clean sheet | 59% |
| Caerphilly clean sheet | 43% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Trethomas Bluebirds is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Trethomas Bluebirds are backed at home, where they average 2.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (71% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerphilly — FAQ
Who will win Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerphilly?
Our statistical model makes Trethomas Bluebirds the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Trethomas Bluebirds 40%, draw 38%, Caerphilly 23%.
Will both teams score in Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerphilly?
The model gives a 38% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerphilly?
Expected goals are 0.84 for Trethomas Bluebirds and 0.52 for Caerphilly — about 1.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Trethomas Bluebirds vs Caerphilly?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (26%). Double chance for Trethomas Bluebirds or draw is 79%.