Troon FC vs Renfrew Prediction & Preview
Lowland League (Scotland) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LOWLAND LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
Troon FC vs Renfrew
Model pick: Troon FC (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.8 – 2.72
Total goals: 5.5
Over 2.5: 79%
Both teams score: 73%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Troon FC | Renfrew |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.5 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 3.75 |
*Troon FC shown at home, Renfrew shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Troon FC — last 5
LLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Renfrew — last 5
LLDL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Troon FC (home) | Renfrew (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
Lowland League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.45
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Lowland League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.8 vs 2.72):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-2 (6%) |
| Double chance — Troon FC or draw (1X) | 60% |
| Double chance — Renfrew or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 97% / 3% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Troon FC clean sheet | 7% |
| Renfrew clean sheet | 6% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Troon FC is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Troon FC are backed at home, where they average 4.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 5.5, this shapes as an open game (79% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Troon FC vs Renfrew — FAQ
Who will win Troon FC vs Renfrew?
Our statistical model makes Troon FC the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Troon FC 41%, draw 19%, Renfrew 39%.
Will both teams score in Troon FC vs Renfrew?
The model gives a 73% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Troon FC vs Renfrew?
Expected goals are 2.8 for Troon FC and 2.72 for Renfrew — about 5.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Troon FC vs Renfrew?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-2 (6%). Double chance for Troon FC or draw is 60%.