Troszyn vs Warta Sieradz Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Troszyn vs Warta Sieradz
Model pick: Warta Sieradz (57%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 4.15 – 5.63
Total goals: 9.8
Over 2.5: 87%
Both teams score: 81%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Troszyn | Warta Sieradz |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.67 / 3.0 | 1.6 / 0.6 |
*Troszyn shown at home, Warta Sieradz shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Troszyn — last 5
WLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Warta Sieradz — last 5
WDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 67% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Troszyn (home) | Warta Sieradz (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 33% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (4.15 vs 5.63):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 4-5 (4%) |
| Double chance — Troszyn or draw (1X) | 41% |
| Double chance — Warta Sieradz or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 99% / 1% |
| Troszyn clean sheet | 0% |
| Warta Sieradz clean sheet | 2% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Warta Sieradz is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Despite playing away, Warta Sieradz edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 9.8, this shapes as an open game (87% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Troszyn vs Warta Sieradz — FAQ
Who will win Troszyn vs Warta Sieradz?
Our statistical model makes Warta Sieradz the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Troszyn 28%, draw 14%, Warta Sieradz 57%.
Will both teams score in Troszyn vs Warta Sieradz?
The model gives a 81% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Troszyn vs Warta Sieradz?
Expected goals are 4.15 for Troszyn and 5.63 for Warta Sieradz — about 9.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Troszyn vs Warta Sieradz?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 4-5 (4%). Double chance for Troszyn or draw is 41%.