Trujillanos vs Caracas Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Venezuela) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (VENEZUELA)
Trujillanos vs Caracas
Model pick: Caracas (49%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.94 – 1.58
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Trujillanos | Caracas |
|---|
| League position | #14 (11 pts) | #2 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 2.0 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.0 |
*Trujillanos shown at home, Caracas shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Trujillanos — last 5
DDDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Caracas — last 5
WDWDD
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Trujillanos (home) | Caracas (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 1-2-0 in 3 (2.0 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 38% |
Primera Division (Venezuela) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Primera Division (Venezuela) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.94 vs 1.58):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Trujillanos or draw (1X) | 48% |
| Double chance — Caracas or draw (X2) | 78% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Trujillanos clean sheet | 21% |
| Caracas clean sheet | 39% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Caracas is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Despite playing away, Caracas edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Trujillanos vs Caracas — FAQ
Who will win Trujillanos vs Caracas?
Our statistical model makes Caracas the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Trujillanos 24%, draw 26%, Caracas 49%.
Will both teams score in Trujillanos vs Caracas?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Trujillanos vs Caracas?
Expected goals are 0.94 for Trujillanos and 1.58 for Caracas — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Trujillanos vs Caracas?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (13%). Double chance for Trujillanos or draw is 48%.