Tychy vs Avia Swidnik Prediction & Preview
II Liga (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
II LIGA (POLAND)
Tychy vs Avia Swidnik
Model pick: Tychy (63%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.28 – 0.91
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Tychy | Avia Swidnik |
|---|
| League position | #4 (12 pts) | #8 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 2.2 |
*Tychy shown at home, Avia Swidnik shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Tychy — last 5
WDDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Avia Swidnik — last 5
WWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Tychy (home) | Avia Swidnik (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (2.0 / 0.5 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (0.5 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 75% |
II Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.75
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these II Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.28 vs 0.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Tychy or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Avia Swidnik or draw (X2) | 32% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| Tychy clean sheet | 40% |
| Avia Swidnik clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Tychy is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Tychy are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Tychy vs Avia Swidnik — FAQ
Who will win Tychy vs Avia Swidnik?
Our statistical model makes Tychy the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Tychy 63%, draw 21%, Avia Swidnik 16%.
Will both teams score in Tychy vs Avia Swidnik?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Tychy vs Avia Swidnik?
Expected goals are 2.28 for Tychy and 0.91 for Avia Swidnik — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Tychy vs Avia Swidnik?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%). Double chance for Tychy or draw is 86%.