UAI Urquiza vs Deportivo Laferrere Prediction & Preview
Prim B Metro (Argentina) · Aug 25, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIM B METRO (ARGENTINA)
UAI Urquiza vs Deportivo Laferrere
Model pick: Deportivo Laferrere (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.07 – 1.17
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| UAI Urquiza | Deportivo Laferrere |
|---|
| League position | #20 (27 pts) | #9 (42 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.4 / 0.7 | 1.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 13% | 40% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.0 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
*UAI Urquiza shown at home, Deportivo Laferrere shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
UAI Urquiza — last 5
LDDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 32% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportivo Laferrere — last 5
WLWDL
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 34% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | UAI Urquiza (home) | Deportivo Laferrere (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-8-5 in 15 (0.4 / 0.7 goals per game) | 6-4-5 in 15 (1.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 34% |
Prim B Metro (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.06
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 33%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 35%
BTTS: 43%
Use these Prim B Metro (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.07 vs 1.17):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — UAI Urquiza or draw (1X) | 62% |
| Double chance — Deportivo Laferrere or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| UAI Urquiza clean sheet | 31% |
| Deportivo Laferrere clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Laferrere is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Despite playing away, Deportivo Laferrere edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ UAI Urquiza vs Deportivo Laferrere — FAQ
Who will win UAI Urquiza vs Deportivo Laferrere?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Laferrere the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: UAI Urquiza 33%, draw 29%, Deportivo Laferrere 37%.
Will both teams score in UAI Urquiza vs Deportivo Laferrere?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in UAI Urquiza vs Deportivo Laferrere?
Expected goals are 1.07 for UAI Urquiza and 1.17 for Deportivo Laferrere — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in UAI Urquiza vs Deportivo Laferrere?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for UAI Urquiza or draw is 62%.