UCV vs Academia Puerto Cabello Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Venezuela) · Sep 07, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (VENEZUELA)
UCV vs Academia Puerto Cabello
Model pick: UCV (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
33%
Academia Puerto Cabello
Expected goals: 1.09 – 1.03
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| UCV | Academia Puerto Cabello |
|---|
| League position | #3 (9 pts) | #4 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 1.3 | 0.0 / 2.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 0.4 |
*UCV shown at home, Academia Puerto Cabello shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
UCV — last 5
LLLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Academia Puerto Cabello — last 5
WWDWD
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | UCV (home) | Academia Puerto Cabello (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-1 in 3 (1.7 / 1.3 goals per game) | 0-0-3 in 3 (0.0 / 2.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 42% |
| Top scorer | Camilo Zapata Londono Juan (1) | – |
Primera Division (Venezuela) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Primera Division (Venezuela) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.09 vs 1.03):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — UCV or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Academia Puerto Cabello or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| UCV clean sheet | 36% |
| Academia Puerto Cabello clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
UCV is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. UCV are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ UCV vs Academia Puerto Cabello — FAQ
Who will win UCV vs Academia Puerto Cabello?
Our statistical model makes UCV the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: UCV 36%, draw 30%, Academia Puerto Cabello 33%.
Will both teams score in UCV vs Academia Puerto Cabello?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in UCV vs Academia Puerto Cabello?
Expected goals are 1.09 for UCV and 1.03 for Academia Puerto Cabello — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in UCV vs Academia Puerto Cabello?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for UCV or draw is 66%.