UD Santa Marta vs Arandina Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
UD Santa Marta vs Arandina
Model pick: UD Santa Marta (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.36 – 0.93
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| UD Santa Marta | Arandina |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*UD Santa Marta shown at home, Arandina shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
UD Santa Marta — last 5
DDLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Arandina — last 5
WDDWL
On the road: clean sheet 35% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | UD Santa Marta (home) | Arandina (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 35% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 40% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.36 vs 0.93):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — UD Santa Marta or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Arandina or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| UD Santa Marta clean sheet | 39% |
| Arandina clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
UD Santa Marta is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. UD Santa Marta are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ UD Santa Marta vs Arandina — FAQ
Who will win UD Santa Marta vs Arandina?
Our statistical model makes UD Santa Marta the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: UD Santa Marta 45%, draw 28%, Arandina 27%.
Will both teams score in UD Santa Marta vs Arandina?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in UD Santa Marta vs Arandina?
Expected goals are 1.36 for UD Santa Marta and 0.93 for Arandina — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in UD Santa Marta vs Arandina?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for UD Santa Marta or draw is 74%.