Udinese vs Lazio Prediction & Preview
SerieA · Sep 07, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIEA
Udinese vs Lazio
Model pick: Lazio (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.11 – 1.35
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Udinese | Lazio |
|---|
| League position | #7 (4 pts) | #6 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 0.6 |
*Udinese shown at home, Lazio shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Udinese — last 5
WWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Lazio — last 5
WWLWW
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Udinese (home) | Lazio (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 56% |
SerieA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.74
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 54%
Use these SerieA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.11 vs 1.35):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Udinese or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Lazio or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Udinese clean sheet | 26% |
| Lazio clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Lazio is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Lazio edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Udinese vs Lazio — FAQ
Who will win Udinese vs Lazio?
Our statistical model makes Lazio the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Udinese 32%, draw 30%, Lazio 38%.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Lazio?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Udinese vs Lazio?
Expected goals are 1.11 for Udinese and 1.35 for Lazio — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Udinese vs Lazio?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Udinese or draw is 58%.