Uerdingen vs Scherpenberg Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Uerdingen vs Scherpenberg
Model pick: Uerdingen (84%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 7.36 – 2.84
Total goals: 10.2
Over 2.5: 75%
Both teams score: 69%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Uerdingen | Scherpenberg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.6 | 3.0 / 2.0 |
*Uerdingen shown at home, Scherpenberg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Uerdingen — last 5
DLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 18% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Scherpenberg — last 5
WD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Uerdingen (home) | Scherpenberg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 18% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 0% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.58
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 66%
BTTS: 63%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (7.36 vs 2.84):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 7-2 (5%) |
| Double chance — Uerdingen or draw (1X) | 93% |
| Double chance — Scherpenberg or draw (X2) | 14% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 93% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 99% / 1% |
| Uerdingen clean sheet | 6% |
| Scherpenberg clean sheet | 0% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Uerdingen is the model's most likely outcome at
84%. Uerdingen are backed at home, where they average 0.9 goals a game. With expected goals of 10.2, this shapes as an open game (75% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Uerdingen vs Scherpenberg — FAQ
Who will win Uerdingen vs Scherpenberg?
Our statistical model makes Uerdingen the most likely result at 84%. Full probabilities: Uerdingen 84%, draw 8%, Scherpenberg 8%.
Will both teams score in Uerdingen vs Scherpenberg?
The model gives a 69% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Uerdingen vs Scherpenberg?
Expected goals are 7.36 for Uerdingen and 2.84 for Scherpenberg — about 10.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Uerdingen vs Scherpenberg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 7-2 (5%). Double chance for Uerdingen or draw is 93%.