Čukarički vs OFK Beograd Prediction & Preview
Super Liga (Serbia) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIGA (SERBIA)
Čukarički vs OFK Beograd
Model pick: Čukarički (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.57 – 1.15
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Čukarički | OFK Beograd |
|---|
| League position | #4 (7 pts) | #6 (5 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 0.5 | 2.0 / 2.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
*Čukarički shown at home, OFK Beograd shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Čukarički — last 5
DLWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
OFK Beograd — last 5
LDLWD
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Čukarički (home) | OFK Beograd (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.5 / 0.5 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (2.0 / 2.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 55% |
| Top scorer | Marko Docic (2) | Milan Rodic (3) |
Super Liga (Serbia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Super Liga (Serbia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.57 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Čukarički or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — OFK Beograd or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Čukarički clean sheet | 32% |
| OFK Beograd clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Čukarički is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Čukarički are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Čukarički vs OFK Beograd — FAQ
Who will win Čukarički vs OFK Beograd?
Our statistical model makes Čukarički the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Čukarički 45%, draw 26%, OFK Beograd 29%.
Will both teams score in Čukarički vs OFK Beograd?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Čukarički vs OFK Beograd?
Expected goals are 1.57 for Čukarički and 1.15 for OFK Beograd — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Čukarički vs OFK Beograd?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Čukarički or draw is 72%.