Ulm vs Freiberg Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Ulm vs Freiberg
Model pick: Freiberg (82%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.2 – 2.44
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 34%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ulm | Freiberg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.8 | 2.0 / 0.8 |
*Ulm shown at home, Freiberg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ulm — last 5
LLLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Freiberg — last 5
LWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 50% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ulm (home) | Freiberg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 75% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.25
Home wins: 34%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 64%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.2 vs 2.44):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (21%) |
| Double chance — Ulm or draw (1X) | 13% |
| Double chance — Freiberg or draw (X2) | 98% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 89% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Ulm clean sheet | 9% |
| Freiberg clean sheet | 82% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Freiberg is the model's most likely outcome at
82%. Despite playing away, Freiberg edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ulm vs Freiberg — FAQ
Who will win Ulm vs Freiberg?
Our statistical model makes Freiberg the most likely result at 82%. Full probabilities: Ulm 3%, draw 14%, Freiberg 82%.
Will both teams score in Ulm vs Freiberg?
The model gives a 34% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ulm vs Freiberg?
Expected goals are 0.2 for Ulm and 2.44 for Freiberg — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ulm vs Freiberg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (21%). Double chance for Ulm or draw is 13%.