Ulm vs Freiberg Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Ulm vs Freiberg
Model pick: Freiberg (92%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.04 – 3.02
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 18%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ulm | Freiberg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.8 | 2.0 / 0.8 |
*Ulm shown at home, Freiberg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ulm — last 5
LLLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Freiberg — last 5
LWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 50% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ulm (home) | Freiberg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 75% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.26
Home wins: 36%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 64%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.04 vs 3.02):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-3 (22%) |
| Double chance — Ulm or draw (1X) | 5% |
| Double chance — Freiberg or draw (X2) | 100% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 95% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Ulm clean sheet | 5% |
| Freiberg clean sheet | 96% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Freiberg is the model's most likely outcome at
92%. Despite playing away, Freiberg edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ulm vs Freiberg — FAQ
Who will win Ulm vs Freiberg?
Our statistical model makes Freiberg the most likely result at 92%. Full probabilities: Ulm 0%, draw 8%, Freiberg 92%.
Will both teams score in Ulm vs Freiberg?
The model gives a 18% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ulm vs Freiberg?
Expected goals are 0.04 for Ulm and 3.02 for Freiberg — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ulm vs Freiberg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-3 (22%). Double chance for Ulm or draw is 5%.