Ulm vs Offenbach Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Ulm vs Offenbach
Model pick: Offenbach (61%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.44 – 2.76
Total goals: 4.2
Over 2.5: 68%
Both teams score: 63%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ulm | Offenbach |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.2 | 1.2 / 3.2 |
*Ulm shown at home, Offenbach shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ulm — last 5
WWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Offenbach — last 5
WLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ulm (home) | Offenbach (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 100% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 35%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 62%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.44 vs 2.76):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (8%) |
| Double chance — Ulm or draw (1X) | 35% |
| Double chance — Offenbach or draw (X2) | 82% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 92% / 8% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Ulm clean sheet | 6% |
| Offenbach clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Offenbach is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Despite playing away, Offenbach edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.2, this shapes as an open game (68% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ulm vs Offenbach — FAQ
Who will win Ulm vs Offenbach?
Our statistical model makes Offenbach the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Ulm 20%, draw 19%, Offenbach 61%.
Will both teams score in Ulm vs Offenbach?
The model gives a 63% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ulm vs Offenbach?
Expected goals are 1.44 for Ulm and 2.76 for Offenbach — about 4.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ulm vs Offenbach?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (8%). Double chance for Ulm or draw is 35%.