Ulsan Citizen vs Busan Transportation Prediction & Preview
K League 3 (South Korea) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 3 (SOUTH KOREA)
Ulsan Citizen vs Busan Transportation
Model pick: Busan Transportation (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.13 – 1.41
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ulsan Citizen | Busan Transportation |
|---|
| League position | #10 (22 pts) | #3 (36 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.9 / 0.9 | 1.9 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 30% | 57% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 2.6 / 1.4 |
*Ulsan Citizen shown at home, Busan Transportation shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ulsan Citizen — last 5
WLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
Busan Transportation — last 5
WWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ulsan Citizen (home) | Busan Transportation (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-5 in 10 (0.9 / 0.9 goals per game) | 4-3-0 in 7 (1.9 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 50% |
K League 3 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.42
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%
Use these K League 3 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.13 vs 1.41):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Ulsan Citizen or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Busan Transportation or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Ulsan Citizen clean sheet | 24% |
| Busan Transportation clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Busan Transportation is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Busan Transportation edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ulsan Citizen vs Busan Transportation — FAQ
Who will win Ulsan Citizen vs Busan Transportation?
Our statistical model makes Busan Transportation the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Ulsan Citizen 31%, draw 28%, Busan Transportation 42%.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Citizen vs Busan Transportation?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ulsan Citizen vs Busan Transportation?
Expected goals are 1.13 for Ulsan Citizen and 1.41 for Busan Transportation — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ulsan Citizen vs Busan Transportation?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Ulsan Citizen or draw is 57%.