Ulsan Citizen vs Gyeongju HNP Prediction & Preview
K League 3 (South Korea) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K LEAGUE 3 (SOUTH KOREA)
Ulsan Citizen vs Gyeongju HNP
Model pick: Gyeongju HNP (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.79 – 1.26
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ulsan Citizen | Gyeongju HNP |
|---|
| League position | #8 (25 pts) | #11 (23 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 36% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.8 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
*Ulsan Citizen shown at home, Gyeongju HNP shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ulsan Citizen — last 5
LWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Gyeongju HNP — last 5
DWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 34% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ulsan Citizen (home) | Gyeongju HNP (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-2-5 in 11 (1.0 / 0.9 goals per game) | 2-4-4 in 10 (1.3 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 34% |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 43% |
K League 3 (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.42
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 50%
Use these K League 3 (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.79 vs 1.26):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (16%) |
| Double chance — Ulsan Citizen or draw (1X) | 53% |
| Double chance — Gyeongju HNP or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Ulsan Citizen clean sheet | 28% |
| Gyeongju HNP clean sheet | 45% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Gyeongju HNP is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Despite playing away, Gyeongju HNP edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ulsan Citizen vs Gyeongju HNP — FAQ
Who will win Ulsan Citizen vs Gyeongju HNP?
Our statistical model makes Gyeongju HNP the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Ulsan Citizen 25%, draw 30%, Gyeongju HNP 45%.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Citizen vs Gyeongju HNP?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ulsan Citizen vs Gyeongju HNP?
Expected goals are 0.79 for Ulsan Citizen and 1.26 for Gyeongju HNP — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ulsan Citizen vs Gyeongju HNP?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (16%). Double chance for Ulsan Citizen or draw is 53%.