Ulsan vs Gangwon Prediction & Preview
K-League (South Korea) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 10:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K-LEAGUE (SOUTH KOREA)
Ulsan vs Gangwon
Model pick: Ulsan (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.42 – 1.11
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ulsan | Gangwon |
|---|
| League position | #2 (37 pts) | #4 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 45% | 36% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.6 |
*Ulsan shown at home, Gangwon shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ulsan — last 5
LWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Gangwon — last 5
LWDLL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ulsan (home) | Gangwon (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-1-5 in 11 (1.6 / 1.6 goals per game) | 4-4-3 in 11 (1.0 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 55% |
| Top scorer | – | Jae-Hyeon Mo (2) |
K-League (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.61
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 55%
Use these K-League (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.42 vs 1.11):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Ulsan or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Gangwon or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Ulsan clean sheet | 33% |
| Gangwon clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ulsan is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Ulsan are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Ulsan vs Gangwon — FAQ
Who will win Ulsan vs Gangwon?
Our statistical model makes Ulsan the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Ulsan 38%, draw 28%, Gangwon 34%.
Will both teams score in Ulsan vs Gangwon?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ulsan vs Gangwon?
Expected goals are 1.42 for Ulsan and 1.11 for Gangwon — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ulsan vs Gangwon?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Ulsan or draw is 71%.