Ulsan vs Sangju Sangmu Prediction & Preview
K-League (South Korea) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 10:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
K-LEAGUE (SOUTH KOREA)
Ulsan vs Sangju Sangmu
Model pick: Ulsan (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.19
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ulsan | Sangju Sangmu |
|---|
| League position | #2 (37 pts) | #11 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 1.8 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 42% | 23% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
*Ulsan shown at home, Sangju Sangmu shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ulsan — last 5
LWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Sangju Sangmu — last 5
WDDLD
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ulsan (home) | Sangju Sangmu (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-1-6 in 12 (1.7 / 1.8 goals per game) | 3-7-3 in 13 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 54% |
| Top scorer | – | Jae-Hyeon Go (3) |
K-League (South Korea) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.61
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 55%
Use these K-League (South Korea) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.29 vs 1.19):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Ulsan or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Sangju Sangmu or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Ulsan clean sheet | 30% |
| Sangju Sangmu clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ulsan is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Ulsan are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ulsan vs Sangju Sangmu — FAQ
Who will win Ulsan vs Sangju Sangmu?
Our statistical model makes Ulsan the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Ulsan 38%, draw 28%, Sangju Sangmu 34%.
Will both teams score in Ulsan vs Sangju Sangmu?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ulsan vs Sangju Sangmu?
Expected goals are 1.29 for Ulsan and 1.19 for Sangju Sangmu — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ulsan vs Sangju Sangmu?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Ulsan or draw is 66%.