Ulyanovsk vs Arsenal Tula Prediction & Preview
1-division (Russia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-DIVISION (RUSSIA)
Ulyanovsk vs Arsenal Tula
Model pick: Ulyanovsk (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.37 – 1.28
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ulyanovsk | Arsenal Tula |
|---|
| League position | #14 (7 pts) | #9 (12 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.8 | 0.5 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*Ulyanovsk shown at home, Arsenal Tula shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ulyanovsk — last 5
WLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Arsenal Tula — last 5
DDWLD
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ulyanovsk (home) | Arsenal Tula (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-3 in 4 (1.0 / 1.8 goals per game) | 0-2-2 in 4 (0.5 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 48% |
1-division (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 49%
Use these 1-division (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.37 vs 1.28):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Ulyanovsk or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Arsenal Tula or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Ulyanovsk clean sheet | 28% |
| Arsenal Tula clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ulyanovsk is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Ulyanovsk are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ulyanovsk vs Arsenal Tula — FAQ
Who will win Ulyanovsk vs Arsenal Tula?
Our statistical model makes Ulyanovsk the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Ulyanovsk 38%, draw 28%, Arsenal Tula 34%.
Will both teams score in Ulyanovsk vs Arsenal Tula?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ulyanovsk vs Arsenal Tula?
Expected goals are 1.37 for Ulyanovsk and 1.28 for Arsenal Tula — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ulyanovsk vs Arsenal Tula?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Ulyanovsk or draw is 65%.