Umeå FC vs Vasalund Prediction & Preview
Division 1 (Sweden) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 11:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION 1 (SWEDEN)
Umeå FC vs Vasalund
Model pick: Vasalund (55%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.48 – 1.36
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 41%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Umeå FC | Vasalund |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
*Umeå FC shown at home, Vasalund shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Umeå FC — last 5
WLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Vasalund — last 5
DWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 69% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Umeå FC (home) | Vasalund (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 69% |
Division 1 (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Division 1 (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.48 vs 1.36):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (22%) |
| Double chance — Umeå FC or draw (1X) | 41% |
| Double chance — Vasalund or draw (X2) | 87% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 55% / 45% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Umeå FC clean sheet | 26% |
| Vasalund clean sheet | 62% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Vasalund is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Despite playing away, Vasalund edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Umeå FC vs Vasalund — FAQ
Who will win Umeå FC vs Vasalund?
Our statistical model makes Vasalund the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: Umeå FC 15%, draw 30%, Vasalund 55%.
Will both teams score in Umeå FC vs Vasalund?
The model gives a 41% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Umeå FC vs Vasalund?
Expected goals are 0.48 for Umeå FC and 1.36 for Vasalund — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Umeå FC vs Vasalund?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (22%). Double chance for Umeå FC or draw is 41%.