Umea FF vs IFK Umea Prediction & Preview
Division 2 (Sweden) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION 2 (SWEDEN)
Umea FF vs IFK Umea
Model pick: Umea FF (53%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.67 – 1.82
Total goals: 4.5
Over 2.5: 71%
Both teams score: 66%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Umea FF | IFK Umea |
|---|
| League position | #6 (11 pts) | #7 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 2.8 | 0.8 / 3.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.5 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 1.5 |
*Umea FF shown at home, IFK Umea shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Umea FF — last 5
LD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 100% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
IFK Umea — last 5
LD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Umea FF (home) | IFK Umea (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-4 in 6 (1.7 / 2.8 goals per game) | 0-1-5 in 6 (0.8 / 3.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
Division 2 (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.96
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Division 2 (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.67 vs 1.82):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (7%) |
| Double chance — Umea FF or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — IFK Umea or draw (X2) | 44% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 94% / 6% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Umea FF clean sheet | 16% |
| IFK Umea clean sheet | 7% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Umea FF is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Umea FF are backed at home, where they average 0.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.5, this shapes as an open game (71% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Umea FF vs IFK Umea — FAQ
Who will win Umea FF vs IFK Umea?
Our statistical model makes Umea FF the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Umea FF 53%, draw 20%, IFK Umea 27%.
Will both teams score in Umea FF vs IFK Umea?
The model gives a 66% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Umea FF vs IFK Umea?
Expected goals are 2.67 for Umea FF and 1.82 for IFK Umea — about 4.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Umea FF vs IFK Umea?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (7%). Double chance for Umea FF or draw is 74%.