Unión La Calera vs Everton Prediction & Preview
Liga De Primera (Chile) · Jul 27, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA DE PRIMERA (CHILE)
Unión La Calera vs Everton
Model pick: Unión La Calera (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.21 – 1.02
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Unión La Calera | Everton |
|---|
| League position | #16 (12 pts) | #7 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 43% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
*Unión La Calera shown at home, Everton shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Unión La Calera — last 5
LWDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Everton — last 5
LLLDW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Unión La Calera (home) | Everton (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-4 in 8 (1.4 / 1.6 goals per game) | 3-1-3 in 7 (1.4 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% |
| Top scorer | Jorge Saez (7) | Cristian Palacios (3) |
Liga De Primera (Chile) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.64
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Liga De Primera (Chile) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.21 vs 1.02):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Unión La Calera or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Everton or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Unión La Calera clean sheet | 36% |
| Everton clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Unión La Calera is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Unión La Calera are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Unión La Calera vs Everton — FAQ
Who will win Unión La Calera vs Everton?
Our statistical model makes Unión La Calera the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Unión La Calera 39%, draw 29%, Everton 31%.
Will both teams score in Unión La Calera vs Everton?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Unión La Calera vs Everton?
Expected goals are 1.21 for Unión La Calera and 1.02 for Everton — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Unión La Calera vs Everton?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Unión La Calera or draw is 69%.