União de Leiria vs Benfica II Prediction & Preview
Division2 (Portugal) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION2 (PORTUGAL)
União de Leiria vs Benfica II
Model pick: União de Leiria (43%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.67 – 1.38
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| União de Leiria | Benfica II |
|---|
| League position | #16 (0 pts) | #12 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 0.4 |
*União de Leiria shown at home, Benfica II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
União de Leiria — last 5
DLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Benfica II — last 5
DDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | União de Leiria (home) | Benfica II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 53% |
| Top scorer | – | Leonardo Vonic (4) |
Division2 (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Division2 (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.67 vs 1.38):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — União de Leiria or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Benfica II or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| União de Leiria clean sheet | 25% |
| Benfica II clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
União de Leiria is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. União de Leiria are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ União de Leiria vs Benfica II — FAQ
Who will win União de Leiria vs Benfica II?
Our statistical model makes União de Leiria the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: União de Leiria 43%, draw 25%, Benfica II 32%.
Will both teams score in União de Leiria vs Benfica II?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in União de Leiria vs Benfica II?
Expected goals are 1.67 for União de Leiria and 1.38 for Benfica II — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in União de Leiria vs Benfica II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for União de Leiria or draw is 68%.