União de Leiria vs Tondela Prediction & Preview
Division2 (Portugal) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION2 (PORTUGAL)
União de Leiria vs Tondela
Model pick: União de Leiria (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.39 – 1.3
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| União de Leiria | Tondela |
|---|
| League position | #8 (3 pts) | #17 (28 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
*União de Leiria shown at home, Tondela shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
União de Leiria — last 5
WLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Tondela — last 5
DLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | União de Leiria (home) | Tondela (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 45% |
Division2 (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Division2 (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.39 vs 1.3):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — União de Leiria or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Tondela or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| União de Leiria clean sheet | 27% |
| Tondela clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
União de Leiria is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. União de Leiria are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ União de Leiria vs Tondela — FAQ
Who will win União de Leiria vs Tondela?
Our statistical model makes União de Leiria the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: União de Leiria 38%, draw 27%, Tondela 35%.
Will both teams score in União de Leiria vs Tondela?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in União de Leiria vs Tondela?
Expected goals are 1.39 for União de Leiria and 1.3 for Tondela — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in União de Leiria vs Tondela?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for União de Leiria or draw is 65%.