Unia Swarzedz vs Lech Poznań II Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Unia Swarzedz vs Lech Poznań II
Model pick: Lech Poznań II (55%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.61 – 2.59
Total goals: 4.2
Over 2.5: 68%
Both teams score: 64%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Unia Swarzedz | Lech Poznań II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 2.2 |
*Unia Swarzedz shown at home, Lech Poznań II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Unia Swarzedz — last 5
LLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Lech Poznań II — last 5
DLWWL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Unia Swarzedz (home) | Lech Poznań II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 54% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.61 vs 2.59):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (8%) |
| Double chance — Unia Swarzedz or draw (1X) | 41% |
| Double chance — Lech Poznań II or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 92% / 8% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Unia Swarzedz clean sheet | 8% |
| Lech Poznań II clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Lech Poznań II is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Despite playing away, Lech Poznań II edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.2, this shapes as an open game (68% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Unia Swarzedz vs Lech Poznań II — FAQ
Who will win Unia Swarzedz vs Lech Poznań II?
Our statistical model makes Lech Poznań II the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: Unia Swarzedz 25%, draw 20%, Lech Poznań II 55%.
Will both teams score in Unia Swarzedz vs Lech Poznań II?
The model gives a 64% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Unia Swarzedz vs Lech Poznań II?
Expected goals are 1.61 for Unia Swarzedz and 2.59 for Lech Poznań II — about 4.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Unia Swarzedz vs Lech Poznań II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (8%). Double chance for Unia Swarzedz or draw is 41%.