Union Gurten vs LASK Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Austria) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (AUSTRIA)
Union Gurten vs LASK
Model pick: Union Gurten (54%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 4.18 – 3.14
Total goals: 7.3
Over 2.5: 88%
Both teams score: 80%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Union Gurten | LASK |
|---|
| League position | #2 (64 pts) | #3 (51 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.1 / 0.8 | 1.8 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 40% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.2 | 2.6 / 2.2 |
*Union Gurten shown at home, LASK shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Union Gurten — last 5
LWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
LASK — last 5
LLLWD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Union Gurten (home) | LASK (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 10-3-2 in 15 (2.1 / 0.8 goals per game) | 6-2-7 in 15 (1.8 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
Regionalliga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.32
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Regionalliga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (4.18 vs 3.14):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 4-3 (4%) |
| Double chance — Union Gurten or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — LASK or draw (X2) | 43% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 86% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 99% / 1% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 93% / 7% |
| Union Gurten clean sheet | 4% |
| LASK clean sheet | 2% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Union Gurten is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Union Gurten are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 7.3, this shapes as an open game (88% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Union Gurten vs LASK — FAQ
Who will win Union Gurten vs LASK?
Our statistical model makes Union Gurten the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Union Gurten 54%, draw 16%, LASK 30%.
Will both teams score in Union Gurten vs LASK?
The model gives a 80% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Union Gurten vs LASK?
Expected goals are 4.18 for Union Gurten and 3.14 for LASK — about 7.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Union Gurten vs LASK?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 4-3 (4%). Double chance for Union Gurten or draw is 71%.