Union Omaha vs Charlotte Independ. Prediction & Preview
USL League One (USA) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 00:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL LEAGUE ONE (USA)
Union Omaha vs Charlotte Independ.
Model pick: Union Omaha (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.95 – 1.46
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Union Omaha | Charlotte Independ. |
|---|
| League position | #2 (46 pts) | #1 (46 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.2 / 1.0 | 1.9 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 30% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.2 | 2.4 / 1.2 |
*Union Omaha shown at home, Charlotte Independ. shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Union Omaha — last 5
WWDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Charlotte Independ. — last 5
WLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Union Omaha (home) | Charlotte Independ. (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 8-4-0 in 12 (2.2 / 1.0 goals per game) | 3-4-3 in 10 (1.9 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
USL League One (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.03
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 62%
Use these USL League One (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.95 vs 1.46):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Union Omaha or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Charlotte Independ. or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 44% / 56% |
| Union Omaha clean sheet | 23% |
| Charlotte Independ. clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Union Omaha is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Union Omaha are backed at home, where they average 2.4 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Union Omaha vs Charlotte Independ. — FAQ
Who will win Union Omaha vs Charlotte Independ.?
Our statistical model makes Union Omaha the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Union Omaha 47%, draw 24%, Charlotte Independ. 30%.
Will both teams score in Union Omaha vs Charlotte Independ.?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Union Omaha vs Charlotte Independ.?
Expected goals are 1.95 for Union Omaha and 1.46 for Charlotte Independ. — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Union Omaha vs Charlotte Independ.?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (9%). Double chance for Union Omaha or draw is 71%.