Union Omaha vs New York Cosmos Prediction & Preview
USL League One (USA) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 00:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL LEAGUE ONE (USA)
Union Omaha vs New York Cosmos
Model pick: Union Omaha (79%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.8 – 0.54
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Union Omaha | New York Cosmos |
|---|
| League position | #1 (45 pts) | #17 (18 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 1.0 | 1.1 / 2.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 73% | 9% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
*Union Omaha shown at home, New York Cosmos shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Union Omaha — last 5
WWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
New York Cosmos — last 5
LLWWD
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Union Omaha (home) | New York Cosmos (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 8-3-0 in 11 (2.3 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-1-9 in 11 (1.1 / 2.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 60% |
USL League One (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.94
Home wins: 50%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 61%
Use these USL League One (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.8 vs 0.54):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Union Omaha or draw (1X) | 95% |
| Double chance — New York Cosmos or draw (X2) | 16% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 89% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Union Omaha clean sheet | 58% |
| New York Cosmos clean sheet | 6% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Union Omaha is the model's most likely outcome at
79%. Union Omaha are backed at home, where they average 2.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Union Omaha vs New York Cosmos — FAQ
Who will win Union Omaha vs New York Cosmos?
Our statistical model makes Union Omaha the most likely result at 79%. Full probabilities: Union Omaha 79%, draw 14%, New York Cosmos 7%.
Will both teams score in Union Omaha vs New York Cosmos?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Union Omaha vs New York Cosmos?
Expected goals are 2.8 for Union Omaha and 0.54 for New York Cosmos — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Union Omaha vs New York Cosmos?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (14%). Double chance for Union Omaha or draw is 95%.