Universidad Guadalajara vs Correcaminos UAT Prediction & Preview
Primera A (Mexico) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 01:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA A (MEXICO)
Universidad Guadalajara vs Correcaminos UAT
Model pick: Universidad Guadalajara (65%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
65%
Universidad Guadalajara
Expected goals: 2.46 – 0.96
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Universidad Guadalajara | Correcaminos UAT |
|---|
| League position | #6 (3 pts) | #3 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 3.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.4 | 2.0 / 2.6 |
*Universidad Guadalajara shown at home, Correcaminos UAT shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Universidad Guadalajara — last 5
DWLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Correcaminos UAT — last 5
LLDDW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Universidad Guadalajara (home) | Correcaminos UAT (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-1-0 in 1 (3.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 57% |
Primera A (Mexico) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.53
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera A (Mexico) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.46 vs 0.96):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (10%) |
| Double chance — Universidad Guadalajara or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Correcaminos UAT or draw (X2) | 30% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| Universidad Guadalajara clean sheet | 38% |
| Correcaminos UAT clean sheet | 9% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Universidad Guadalajara is the model's most likely outcome at
65%. Universidad Guadalajara are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Universidad Guadalajara vs Correcaminos UAT — FAQ
Who will win Universidad Guadalajara vs Correcaminos UAT?
Our statistical model makes Universidad Guadalajara the most likely result at 65%. Full probabilities: Universidad Guadalajara 65%, draw 20%, Correcaminos UAT 15%.
Will both teams score in Universidad Guadalajara vs Correcaminos UAT?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Universidad Guadalajara vs Correcaminos UAT?
Expected goals are 2.46 for Universidad Guadalajara and 0.96 for Correcaminos UAT — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Universidad Guadalajara vs Correcaminos UAT?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (10%). Double chance for Universidad Guadalajara or draw is 87%.