Universitatea Craiova vs Universitatea Cluj Prediction & Preview
Liga I (Romania) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA I (ROMANIA)
Universitatea Craiova vs Universitatea Cluj
Model pick: Universitatea Craiova (49%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.57 – 0.96
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Universitatea Craiova | Universitatea Cluj |
|---|
| League position | #25 (7 pts) | #12 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 1.6 / 2.0 |
*Universitatea Craiova shown at home, Universitatea Cluj shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Universitatea Craiova — last 5
WDDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Universitatea Cluj — last 5
LWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Universitatea Craiova (home) | Universitatea Cluj (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-1 in 3 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 41% |
| Top scorer | Steven Nsimba (10) | Jovo Lukic (18) |
Liga I (Romania) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.39
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Liga I (Romania) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.57 vs 0.96):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Universitatea Craiova or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Universitatea Cluj or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Universitatea Craiova clean sheet | 38% |
| Universitatea Cluj clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Universitatea Craiova is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Universitatea Craiova are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Universitatea Craiova vs Universitatea Cluj — FAQ
Who will win Universitatea Craiova vs Universitatea Cluj?
Our statistical model makes Universitatea Craiova the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Universitatea Craiova 49%, draw 27%, Universitatea Cluj 25%.
Will both teams score in Universitatea Craiova vs Universitatea Cluj?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Universitatea Craiova vs Universitatea Cluj?
Expected goals are 1.57 for Universitatea Craiova and 0.96 for Universitatea Cluj — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Universitatea Craiova vs Universitatea Cluj?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Universitatea Craiova or draw is 77%.