UTC Cajamarca vs ADT Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
UTC Cajamarca vs ADT
Model pick: UTC Cajamarca (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.26 – 1.08
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| UTC Cajamarca | ADT |
|---|
| League position | #18 (13 pts) | #11 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.2 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
*UTC Cajamarca shown at home, ADT shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
UTC Cajamarca — last 5
LWLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
ADT — last 5
DWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | UTC Cajamarca (home) | ADT (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 47% |
| Top scorer | Marlon de Jesus (4) | Jonatan Bauman (4) |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.26 vs 1.08):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — UTC Cajamarca or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — ADT or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| UTC Cajamarca clean sheet | 34% |
| ADT clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
UTC Cajamarca is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. UTC Cajamarca are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ UTC Cajamarca vs ADT — FAQ
Who will win UTC Cajamarca vs ADT?
Our statistical model makes UTC Cajamarca the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: UTC Cajamarca 41%, draw 29%, ADT 30%.
Will both teams score in UTC Cajamarca vs ADT?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in UTC Cajamarca vs ADT?
Expected goals are 1.26 for UTC Cajamarca and 1.08 for ADT — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in UTC Cajamarca vs ADT?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for UTC Cajamarca or draw is 68%.