UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos
Model pick: UTC Cajamarca (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.61 – 1.07
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| UTC Cajamarca | Comerciantes Unidos |
|---|
| League position | #18 (13 pts) | #9 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
*UTC Cajamarca shown at home, Comerciantes Unidos shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
UTC Cajamarca — last 5
LDLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Comerciantes Unidos — last 5
DDLWL
On the road: clean sheet 10% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | UTC Cajamarca (home) | Comerciantes Unidos (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% |
| Top scorer | Marlon de Jesus (4) | Matias Sen (6) |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.61 vs 1.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — UTC Cajamarca or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Comerciantes Unidos or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| UTC Cajamarca clean sheet | 34% |
| Comerciantes Unidos clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
UTC Cajamarca is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. UTC Cajamarca are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos — FAQ
Who will win UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Our statistical model makes UTC Cajamarca the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: UTC Cajamarca 47%, draw 28%, Comerciantes Unidos 26%.
Will both teams score in UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Expected goals are 1.61 for UTC Cajamarca and 1.07 for Comerciantes Unidos — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for UTC Cajamarca or draw is 75%.