Utrecht II vs Heracles Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Aug 24, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
Utrecht II vs Heracles
Model pick: Heracles (70%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.04 – 2.91
Total goals: 4.0
Over 2.5: 66%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Utrecht II | Heracles |
|---|
| League position | #20 (0 pts) | #18 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.4 | 2.8 / 2.2 |
*Utrecht II shown at home, Heracles shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Utrecht II — last 5
WLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 17% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Heracles — last 5
WWLWW
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 66% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Utrecht II (home) | Heracles (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 17% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 66% |
| Top scorer | Rafik El Arguioui (11) | – |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.14
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.04 vs 2.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (9%) |
| Double chance — Utrecht II or draw (1X) | 25% |
| Double chance — Heracles or draw (X2) | 89% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 86% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 90% / 10% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 56% / 44% |
| Utrecht II clean sheet | 5% |
| Heracles clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Heracles is the model's most likely outcome at
70%. Despite playing away, Heracles edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.0, this shapes as an open game (66% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Utrecht II vs Heracles — FAQ
Who will win Utrecht II vs Heracles?
Our statistical model makes Heracles the most likely result at 70%. Full probabilities: Utrecht II 13%, draw 17%, Heracles 70%.
Will both teams score in Utrecht II vs Heracles?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Utrecht II vs Heracles?
Expected goals are 1.04 for Utrecht II and 2.91 for Heracles — about 4.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Utrecht II vs Heracles?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (9%). Double chance for Utrecht II or draw is 25%.