Vålerenga vs HamKam Prediction & Preview
Eliteserien (Norway) · Jul 31, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ELITESERIEN (NORWAY)
Vålerenga vs HamKam
Model pick: Vålerenga (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.72 – 1.18
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Vålerenga | HamKam |
|---|
| League position | #9 (17 pts) | #8 (18 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.1 / 1.3 | 1.2 / 2.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 57% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 2.2 | 1.8 / 2.4 |
*Vålerenga shown at home, HamKam shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Vålerenga — last 5
WLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
HamKam — last 5
WLDLL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Vålerenga (home) | HamKam (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-1-2 in 7 (2.1 / 1.3 goals per game) | 0-3-3 in 6 (1.2 / 2.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 54% |
Eliteserien (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.99
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eliteserien (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.72 vs 1.18):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Vålerenga or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — HamKam or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Vålerenga clean sheet | 31% |
| HamKam clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Vålerenga is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Vålerenga are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Vålerenga vs HamKam — FAQ
Who will win Vålerenga vs HamKam?
Our statistical model makes Vålerenga the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Vålerenga 47%, draw 25%, HamKam 27%.
Will both teams score in Vålerenga vs HamKam?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Vålerenga vs HamKam?
Expected goals are 1.72 for Vålerenga and 1.18 for HamKam — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Vålerenga vs HamKam?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Vålerenga or draw is 74%.