Värnamo vs Brage Prediction & Preview
Superettan (Sweden) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPERETTAN (SWEDEN)
Värnamo vs Brage
Model pick: Värnamo (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.81 – 1.38
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 61%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Värnamo | Brage |
|---|
| League position | #15 (10 pts) | #13 (16 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 29% | 38% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 3.8 | 2.2 / 1.6 |
*Värnamo shown at home, Brage shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Värnamo — last 5
LLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Brage — last 5
LWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Värnamo (home) | Brage (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-4 in 7 (1.4 / 1.4 goals per game) | 3-1-4 in 8 (1.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 56% |
| Top scorer | Axel Bjornstrom (2) | Felix Horberg (2) |
Superettan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.73
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Superettan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.81 vs 1.38):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Värnamo or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Brage or draw (X2) | 52% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Värnamo clean sheet | 25% |
| Brage clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Värnamo is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Värnamo are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Värnamo vs Brage — FAQ
Who will win Värnamo vs Brage?
Our statistical model makes Värnamo the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Värnamo 44%, draw 25%, Brage 31%.
Will both teams score in Värnamo vs Brage?
The model gives a 61% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Värnamo vs Brage?
Expected goals are 1.81 for Värnamo and 1.38 for Brage — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Värnamo vs Brage?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Värnamo or draw is 71%.