Värnamo vs Landskrona Prediction & Preview
Superettan (Sweden) · Aug 24, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPERETTAN (SWEDEN)
Värnamo vs Landskrona
Model pick: Värnamo (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.59 – 0.96
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Värnamo | Landskrona |
|---|
| League position | #14 (18 pts) | #5 (29 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 22% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
*Värnamo shown at home, Landskrona shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Värnamo — last 5
LDWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Landskrona — last 5
LLLWD
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Värnamo (home) | Landskrona (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-3-4 in 9 (1.2 / 1.2 goals per game) | 5-1-4 in 10 (1.4 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 52% |
| Top scorer | Axel Bjornstrom (2) | Adam Egnell (2) |
Superettan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.73
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Superettan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.59 vs 0.96):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Värnamo or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Landskrona or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Värnamo clean sheet | 38% |
| Landskrona clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Värnamo is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Värnamo are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Värnamo vs Landskrona — FAQ
Who will win Värnamo vs Landskrona?
Our statistical model makes Värnamo the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Värnamo 44%, draw 27%, Landskrona 29%.
Will both teams score in Värnamo vs Landskrona?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Värnamo vs Landskrona?
Expected goals are 1.59 for Värnamo and 0.96 for Landskrona — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Värnamo vs Landskrona?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (12%). Double chance for Värnamo or draw is 77%.