Värnamo vs Östersunds FK Prediction & Preview
Superettan (Sweden) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPERETTAN (SWEDEN)
Värnamo vs Östersunds FK
Model pick: Värnamo (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.8 – 0.84
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Värnamo | Östersunds FK |
|---|
| League position | #15 (14 pts) | #4 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.8 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
*Värnamo shown at home, Östersunds FK shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Värnamo — last 5
LLLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Östersunds FK — last 5
LWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Värnamo (home) | Östersunds FK (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-4 in 8 (1.2 / 1.2 goals per game) | 3-3-3 in 9 (1.4 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 44% |
| Top scorer | Axel Bjornstrom (2) | – |
Superettan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.73
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Superettan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.8 vs 0.84):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Värnamo or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Östersunds FK or draw (X2) | 40% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Värnamo clean sheet | 43% |
| Östersunds FK clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Värnamo is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Värnamo are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Värnamo vs Östersunds FK — FAQ
Who will win Värnamo vs Östersunds FK?
Our statistical model makes Värnamo the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Värnamo 42%, draw 26%, Östersunds FK 31%.
Will both teams score in Värnamo vs Östersunds FK?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Värnamo vs Östersunds FK?
Expected goals are 1.8 for Värnamo and 0.84 for Östersunds FK — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Värnamo vs Östersunds FK?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Värnamo or draw is 83%.