Värnamo vs Varberg Prediction & Preview
Superettan (Sweden) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPERETTAN (SWEDEN)
Värnamo vs Varberg
Model pick: Värnamo (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.61 – 1.03
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Värnamo | Varberg |
|---|
| League position | #12 (22 pts) | #3 (37 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 20% | 40% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
*Värnamo shown at home, Varberg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Värnamo — last 5
WDWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Varberg — last 5
LDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Värnamo (home) | Varberg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-4-4 in 10 (1.2 / 1.2 goals per game) | 4-3-3 in 10 (1.8 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 53% |
| Top scorer | Axel Bjornstrom (2) | Wilhelm Arlig (1) |
Superettan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.73
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Superettan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.61 vs 1.03):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Värnamo or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Varberg or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Värnamo clean sheet | 36% |
| Varberg clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Värnamo is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Värnamo are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Värnamo vs Varberg — FAQ
Who will win Värnamo vs Varberg?
Our statistical model makes Värnamo the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Värnamo 40%, draw 27%, Varberg 33%.
Will both teams score in Värnamo vs Varberg?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Värnamo vs Varberg?
Expected goals are 1.61 for Värnamo and 1.03 for Varberg — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Värnamo vs Varberg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Värnamo or draw is 76%.