Vall de Uxó vs Utiel Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Vall de Uxó vs Utiel
Model pick: Vall de Uxó (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.17 – 0.72
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Vall de Uxó | Utiel |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*Vall de Uxó shown at home, Utiel shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Vall de Uxó — last 5
WLLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 45% of the time; 30% of home games go over 2.5.
Utiel — last 5
DDWDL
On the road: clean sheet 36% of the time; 36% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Vall de Uxó (home) | Utiel (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 45% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 36% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.17 vs 0.72):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (18%) |
| Double chance — Vall de Uxó or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Utiel or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 56% / 44% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Vall de Uxó clean sheet | 49% |
| Utiel clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Vall de Uxó is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Vall de Uxó are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Vall de Uxó vs Utiel — FAQ
Who will win Vall de Uxó vs Utiel?
Our statistical model makes Vall de Uxó the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Vall de Uxó 44%, draw 31%, Utiel 24%.
Will both teams score in Vall de Uxó vs Utiel?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Vall de Uxó vs Utiel?
Expected goals are 1.17 for Vall de Uxó and 0.72 for Utiel — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Vall de Uxó vs Utiel?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (18%). Double chance for Vall de Uxó or draw is 77%.