Vanlose vs Hillerod Prediction & Preview
Denmark Cup · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DENMARK CUP
Vanlose vs Hillerod
Model pick: Hillerod (100%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.08 – 11.97
Total goals: 12.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 16%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Vanlose | Hillerod |
|---|
| League position | #5 (8 pts) | #10 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 0.7 | 1.3 / 2.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.0 | 2.4 / 1.6 |
*Vanlose shown at home, Hillerod shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Vanlose — last 5
WLWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 60% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Hillerod — last 5
LDLWW
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Vanlose (home) | Hillerod (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-0 in 3 (2.3 / 0.7 goals per game) | 0-0-3 in 3 (1.3 / 2.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 60% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 43% |
Denmark Cup — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 4.08
Home wins: 19%
Draws: 3%
Away wins: 78%
Over 2.5: 74%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Denmark Cup averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.08 vs 11.97):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-8 (39%) |
| Double chance — Vanlose or draw (1X) | 0% |
| Double chance — Hillerod or draw (X2) | 100% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 100% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 99% / 1% |
| Vanlose clean sheet | 0% |
| Hillerod clean sheet | 92% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hillerod is the model's most likely outcome at
100%. Despite playing away, Hillerod edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Vanlose vs Hillerod — FAQ
Who will win Vanlose vs Hillerod?
Our statistical model makes Hillerod the most likely result at 100%. Full probabilities: Vanlose 0%, draw 0%, Hillerod 100%.
Will both teams score in Vanlose vs Hillerod?
The model gives a 16% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Vanlose vs Hillerod?
Expected goals are 0.08 for Vanlose and 11.97 for Hillerod — about 12.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Vanlose vs Hillerod?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-8 (39%). Double chance for Vanlose or draw is 0%.