Vanraure vs Vegalta Sendai Prediction & Preview
J2-League (Japan) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 08:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
J2-LEAGUE (JAPAN)
Vanraure vs Vegalta Sendai
Model pick: Vegalta Sendai (57%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.06 – 2.1
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Vanraure | Vegalta Sendai |
|---|
| League position | #9 (18 pts) | #1 (43 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.6 / 1.5 | 2.1 / 0.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 12% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.67 / 1.67 | 0.0 / 1.6 |
*Vanraure shown at home, Vegalta Sendai shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Vanraure — last 5
DWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 100% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Vegalta Sendai — last 5
DLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Vanraure (home) | Vegalta Sendai (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-7 in 8 (0.6 / 1.5 goals per game) | 9-0-0 in 9 (2.1 / 0.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 100% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 48% |
J2-League (Japan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.48
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these J2-League (Japan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.06 vs 2.1):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (10%) |
| Double chance — Vanraure or draw (1X) | 39% |
| Double chance — Vegalta Sendai or draw (X2) | 82% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| Vanraure clean sheet | 12% |
| Vegalta Sendai clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Vegalta Sendai is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Despite playing away, Vegalta Sendai edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Vanraure vs Vegalta Sendai — FAQ
Who will win Vanraure vs Vegalta Sendai?
Our statistical model makes Vegalta Sendai the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Vanraure 21%, draw 22%, Vegalta Sendai 57%.
Will both teams score in Vanraure vs Vegalta Sendai?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Vanraure vs Vegalta Sendai?
Expected goals are 1.06 for Vanraure and 2.1 for Vegalta Sendai — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Vanraure vs Vegalta Sendai?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (10%). Double chance for Vanraure or draw is 39%.