Vaprus vs FCI Levadia Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Vaprus vs FCI Levadia
Model pick: FCI Levadia (72%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.77 – 2.22
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Vaprus | FCI Levadia |
|---|
| League position | #5 (26 pts) | #1 (46 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.7 | 2.6 / 0.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 90% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 2.2 | 3.4 / 0.8 |
*Vaprus shown at home, FCI Levadia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Vaprus — last 5
LLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 10% of the time; 65% of home games go over 2.5.
FCI Levadia — last 5
DWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 45% of the time; 64% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Vaprus (home) | FCI Levadia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-1-4 in 10 (1.8 / 1.7 goals per game) | 9-1-0 in 10 (2.6 / 0.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 10% | 45% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 64% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.77 vs 2.22):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (12%) |
| Double chance — Vaprus or draw (1X) | 30% |
| Double chance — FCI Levadia or draw (X2) | 88% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Vaprus clean sheet | 11% |
| FCI Levadia clean sheet | 46% |
🎯 Our Verdict
FCI Levadia is the model's most likely outcome at
72%. Despite playing away, FCI Levadia edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Vaprus vs FCI Levadia — FAQ
Who will win Vaprus vs FCI Levadia?
Our statistical model makes FCI Levadia the most likely result at 72%. Full probabilities: Vaprus 10%, draw 18%, FCI Levadia 72%.
Will both teams score in Vaprus vs FCI Levadia?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Vaprus vs FCI Levadia?
Expected goals are 0.77 for Vaprus and 2.22 for FCI Levadia — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Vaprus vs FCI Levadia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (12%). Double chance for Vaprus or draw is 30%.