Vaprus vs Flora Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Vaprus vs Flora
Model pick: Flora (60%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.83 – 2.15
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Vaprus | Flora |
|---|
| League position | #6 (27 pts) | #3 (39 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 45% | 70% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 2.0 |
*Vaprus shown at home, Flora shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Vaprus — last 5
LWDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 10% of the time; 64% of home games go over 2.5.
Flora — last 5
DWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 43% of the time; 68% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Vaprus (home) | Flora (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-4 in 11 (1.7 / 1.6 goals per game) | 7-0-3 in 10 (1.8 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 10% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 68% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.83 vs 2.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (12%) |
| Double chance — Vaprus or draw (1X) | 32% |
| Double chance — Flora or draw (X2) | 87% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Vaprus clean sheet | 12% |
| Flora clean sheet | 44% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Flora is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Despite playing away, Flora edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Vaprus vs Flora — FAQ
Who will win Vaprus vs Flora?
Our statistical model makes Flora the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Vaprus 18%, draw 22%, Flora 60%.
Will both teams score in Vaprus vs Flora?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Vaprus vs Flora?
Expected goals are 0.83 for Vaprus and 2.15 for Flora — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Vaprus vs Flora?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (12%). Double chance for Vaprus or draw is 32%.