Vaprus vs Nõmme United Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Vaprus vs Nõmme United
Model pick: Vaprus (61%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.01 – 0.82
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Vaprus | Nõmme United |
|---|
| League position | #7 (28 pts) | #8 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 1.7 | 1.3 / 2.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 42% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 2.4 |
*Vaprus shown at home, Nõmme United shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Vaprus — last 5
DWLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 10% of the time; 64% of home games go over 2.5.
Nõmme United — last 5
LLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 5% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Vaprus (home) | Nõmme United (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-5 in 12 (1.7 / 1.7 goals per game) | 4-1-7 in 12 (1.3 / 2.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 10% | 5% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 45% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.01 vs 0.82):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Vaprus or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Nõmme United or draw (X2) | 35% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Vaprus clean sheet | 44% |
| Nõmme United clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Vaprus is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Vaprus are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Vaprus vs Nõmme United — FAQ
Who will win Vaprus vs Nõmme United?
Our statistical model makes Vaprus the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Vaprus 61%, draw 23%, Nõmme United 17%.
Will both teams score in Vaprus vs Nõmme United?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Vaprus vs Nõmme United?
Expected goals are 2.01 for Vaprus and 0.82 for Nõmme United — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Vaprus vs Nõmme United?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (12%). Double chance for Vaprus or draw is 86%.