Varaždin vs Hajduk Split Prediction & Preview
HNL (Croatia) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
HNL (CROATIA)
Varaždin vs Hajduk Split
Model pick: Hajduk Split (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.0 – 1.38
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Varaždin | Hajduk Split |
|---|
| League position | #6 (0 pts) | #2 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 0.8 | 2.4 / 1.0 |
*Varaždin shown at home, Hajduk Split shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Varaždin — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Hajduk Split — last 5
WWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 37% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Varaždin (home) | Hajduk Split (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 37% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 45% |
| Top scorer | Ivan Mamut (6) | Marko Livaja (8) |
HNL (Croatia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these HNL (Croatia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.0 vs 1.38):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Varaždin or draw (1X) | 54% |
| Double chance — Hajduk Split or draw (X2) | 73% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Varaždin clean sheet | 25% |
| Hajduk Split clean sheet | 37% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hajduk Split is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Despite playing away, Hajduk Split edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Varaždin vs Hajduk Split — FAQ
Who will win Varaždin vs Hajduk Split?
Our statistical model makes Hajduk Split the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Varaždin 27%, draw 29%, Hajduk Split 45%.
Will both teams score in Varaždin vs Hajduk Split?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Varaždin vs Hajduk Split?
Expected goals are 1.0 for Varaždin and 1.38 for Hajduk Split — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Varaždin vs Hajduk Split?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (13%). Double chance for Varaždin or draw is 54%.