Varaždin vs Istra 1961 Prediction & Preview
HNL (Croatia) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
HNL (CROATIA)
Varaždin vs Istra 1961
Model pick: Varaždin (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.4 – 0.87
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Varaždin | Istra 1961 |
|---|
| League position | #1 (12 pts) | #7 (5 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 0.3 | 2.0 / 2.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.0 | 2.2 / 2.0 |
*Varaždin shown at home, Istra 1961 shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Varaždin — last 5
WWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Istra 1961 — last 5
LDWLD
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Varaždin (home) | Istra 1961 (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-0 in 3 (2.0 / 0.3 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (2.0 / 2.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Ivan Mamut (6) | Smail Prevljak (11) |
HNL (Croatia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.61
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these HNL (Croatia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.4 vs 0.87):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Varaždin or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Istra 1961 or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Varaždin clean sheet | 42% |
| Istra 1961 clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Varaždin is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Varaždin are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Varaždin vs Istra 1961 — FAQ
Who will win Varaždin vs Istra 1961?
Our statistical model makes Varaždin the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Varaždin 47%, draw 28%, Istra 1961 25%.
Will both teams score in Varaždin vs Istra 1961?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Varaždin vs Istra 1961?
Expected goals are 1.4 for Varaždin and 0.87 for Istra 1961 — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Varaždin vs Istra 1961?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Varaždin or draw is 77%.