Varaždin vs Rijeka Prediction & Preview
HNL (Croatia) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
HNL (CROATIA)
Varaždin vs Rijeka
Model pick: Rijeka (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.01 – 1.25
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Varaždin | Rijeka |
|---|
| League position | #2 (6 pts) | #5 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 0.2 |
*Varaždin shown at home, Rijeka shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Varaždin — last 5
WWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Rijeka — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Varaždin (home) | Rijeka (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Ivan Mamut (6) | – |
HNL (Croatia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.61
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these HNL (Croatia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.01 vs 1.25):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Varaždin or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Rijeka or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Varaždin clean sheet | 29% |
| Rijeka clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Rijeka is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Rijeka edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Varaždin vs Rijeka — FAQ
Who will win Varaždin vs Rijeka?
Our statistical model makes Rijeka the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Varaždin 30%, draw 29%, Rijeka 40%.
Will both teams score in Varaždin vs Rijeka?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Varaždin vs Rijeka?
Expected goals are 1.01 for Varaždin and 1.25 for Rijeka — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Varaždin vs Rijeka?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Varaždin or draw is 58%.