Varaždin vs Rudeš Prediction & Preview
HNL (Croatia) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
HNL (CROATIA)
Varaždin vs Rudeš
Model pick: Varaždin (66%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.18 – 0.71
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Varaždin | Rudeš |
|---|
| League position | #3 (9 pts) | #9 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 2.8 |
*Varaždin shown at home, Rudeš shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Varaždin — last 5
LWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Rudeš — last 5
DLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 5% of the time; 59% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Varaždin (home) | Rudeš (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (2.0 / 0.5 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.5 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 5% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% |
| Top scorer | Ivan Mamut (6) | – |
HNL (Croatia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.61
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these HNL (Croatia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.18 vs 0.71):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Varaždin or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Rudeš or draw (X2) | 29% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Varaždin clean sheet | 49% |
| Rudeš clean sheet | 11% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Varaždin is the model's most likely outcome at
66%. Varaždin are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Varaždin vs Rudeš — FAQ
Who will win Varaždin vs Rudeš?
Our statistical model makes Varaždin the most likely result at 66%. Full probabilities: Varaždin 66%, draw 21%, Rudeš 13%.
Will both teams score in Varaždin vs Rudeš?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Varaždin vs Rudeš?
Expected goals are 2.18 for Varaždin and 0.71 for Rudeš — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Varaždin vs Rudeš?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (13%). Double chance for Varaždin or draw is 89%.