Varnsdorf vs Velke Hamry Prediction & Preview
Liga 3 (Czech_Republic) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA 3 (CZECH_REPUBLIC)
Varnsdorf vs Velke Hamry
Model pick: Varnsdorf (89%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.72 – 0.05
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 21%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Varnsdorf | Velke Hamry |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 0.2 / 3.2 |
*Varnsdorf shown at home, Velke Hamry shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Varnsdorf — last 5
WWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 67% of the time; 33% of home games go over 2.5.
Velke Hamry — last 5
LLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Varnsdorf (home) | Velke Hamry (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 67% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 100% |
Liga 3 (Czech_Republic) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.06
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Liga 3 (Czech_Republic) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.72 vs 0.05):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (23%) |
| Double chance — Varnsdorf or draw (1X) | 100% |
| Double chance — Velke Hamry or draw (X2) | 8% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 93% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Varnsdorf clean sheet | 95% |
| Velke Hamry clean sheet | 7% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Varnsdorf is the model's most likely outcome at
89%. Varnsdorf are backed at home, where they average 0.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Varnsdorf vs Velke Hamry — FAQ
Who will win Varnsdorf vs Velke Hamry?
Our statistical model makes Varnsdorf the most likely result at 89%. Full probabilities: Varnsdorf 89%, draw 10%, Velke Hamry 1%.
Will both teams score in Varnsdorf vs Velke Hamry?
The model gives a 21% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Varnsdorf vs Velke Hamry?
Expected goals are 2.72 for Varnsdorf and 0.05 for Velke Hamry — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Varnsdorf vs Velke Hamry?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (23%). Double chance for Varnsdorf or draw is 100%.